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ETH是要合并还是硬分叉？真的会引发牛市还是会创造完美的多头陷阱？
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小伙伴们你们好呀，这里無双宝库。欢迎你来到丰富多彩的宝库世界！
这一波ETH因合并事件的基本面利好，短期走了一波反弹。为什么说这仅仅一波反弹而不是一个反转呢？ 下面请听我细细道来。
我们首先要弄明白2个概念：
反弹的定义：熊市反弹的界定标准为不超过一个完整下跌空间的50%的空间。如图1所示，一波完整下跌的起点到终点是白色短斜线段所示，50%的空间为黄色线2230的位置，我们可以很清晰看出本次反弹并未超过黄色线。并且目前已经掉头下行。
小牛的定义：一波经历过完整熊市下跌三阶段后的小牛行情，小牛的涨幅空间大盘涨幅应达到3-5倍的空间，这样才是一波小牛。小牛市中也能诞生不少10-20倍以上的优质币行情。
那么问题来了，根据这两个定义，现在的ETH是反弹还是还是反转？现在大盘有明显得向3-5倍的走势发展的势头吗？除了ETH和ETC有其他的优质币表现得如何？
ETH合并POS，在以太坊的发展规划上早是既定日程，合并POS后也意味着价值佰亿美金的POW以太坊矿机就将失去其原有价值，于是作为ETH母链ETC的主力就开始拉拢人心，来吧转过来改改代码，来挖ETC吧。想吸引这些矿机转ETC自然是要让矿工看到收益的希望，所以猛拉一波ETC。让币价上升充值信仰，实打实的钱最有效了。
可是主力也不是傻子，熊市一直拉，钱花多了就肉疼了，点点火苗煽动散户进场，这下就不用自己再出钱了。果然，已经有很多散户在前些天跑步进场，排队进部队了。
这就是为什么ETH合并ECT冲的最猛的核心原因。
除了带动了一大波ETC的上涨，我们再来讲讲为什么ETH也跟涨了。其实也很简单，源自于第三股势力，这股势力就是既不想挖ETC也不想转POS，他们想干啥呢？
他们想赚快钱，于是开始鼓动硬分叉，按照ETH的机制，如果硬分叉ETH，新公链将会产生新代币的空投，空投比例是按照ETH的持有量1:1的比例空投新公链的新代币，这也就意味着谁持有的ETH越多，新公链产生后能获得的空投糖果就越多。
然而为什么说这是赚快钱呢？有了白来的新币，必然产生变现的需求，一旦早期变现需求被满足，为何还要再花费更多的力气去建设新公链呢?所以在硬分叉这件事上V神是投绝对的反对票的，而赚快钱这几个字也是出自V神之口。
众所众知，ETH之所以有今天，都在于V神。即使硬分叉成功，新公链失去了V神的支持还会不会有大好前途呢？不明局势而跟风的小白们假如还是想凑凑热闹，就要想想，最后自己会不会玩了个寂寞还把自己套在了熊市的半山腰？
我们的公开课每月1号开启，每轮公开课为期21天，是针对广大群众的免费课程，讲解你没有听过精彩交易技术。 来源：金色财经 |
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