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[虚拟币交流]
渣打看涨比特币：年底将冲至15万美元 特朗普胜利是积极因素（转）
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渣打银行对于比特币的态度有了180度的转弯。此前还在警告比特币价格5 k& U0 j$ B4 }) @
/ o/ ^$ A4 Q- }! |( H( d" b6 _+ o可能跌至5万美元区间，但最新报告却以市场情绪改善为由，修改了其预测，
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预计年底可达15万美元。
4 _7 {) B7 K8 ]! C渣打银行外汇研究和数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick认为，若特朗普在11月的美
) G$ q" T4 g8 e) v* s# Z0 }7 H; J
7 b. q4 o+ f: m0 I- T. ~+ l国总统大选中获胜，那对比特币而言是积极的，特朗普的第二个任期将为加密货币! b/ U% ]& t2 b
, d- q. \1 s0 _ Y7 @2 ~创造一个有利的监管环境。0 X8 \' R% M. j
9 [) \/ m0 x! T" m
特朗普最初在担任总统期间是反对加密货币的。然而，自卸任以来，他已经推出了
& n; C- F0 @4 e2 e( g# o6 g" P: @9 p7 F$ t( Y/ N5 a9 h# |0 |4 s1 y- g
几个代币（NFT）。而上个月，他承认了比特币正广受欢迎，将比特币描述为“一种
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额外的货币形式”，并指出这种加密货币已经获得了认可。
9 k! |! [& e O" [7 s8 L$ z5 C* t1 }- O6 F/ `2 j7 v1 {; T" n
年底目标15万美元3 g0 n' v2 Q4 Y. p! x& e
; F. E2 E( ~( h: T7 c) b其实本月早些时候，Geoff Kendrick领导的渣打银行分析团队还警告称， [近期比特币; P- S, ]8 f) C- j: B1 \& ^
" [+ d4 s D: T7 \: d+ S9 S的价格可能会进一步跌至5万美元]https://www.cls.cn/detail/1666381) ，原因是加密
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货币的特定因素和更广泛的宏观经济影响。" p6 ^2 T) B% _
7 K, C/ N# o1 ?; F: q
不过，Kendrick在美联储上周三的表态不及预期那般鹰派、且上周五美国强劲就业报告: b7 E/ e8 p2 \
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公布后，修正了自己的预估。' Z" O: T& c/ P0 [9 I- J
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Kendrick在最新报告中写道，比特币将从近期低点56500美元反弹，比特币年底的目标为. d0 d5 K# ^4 Z# q
3 }; i# f# l* R; }5 w+ e' Q* v* t15万美元，2025年底为20万美元。
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. r, P0 D, m7 F0 a2 |: j$ `除了特朗普可能当选带来的积极因素外，Kendrick还强调了对美国ZF债务和赤字可持续
6 o- i1 U6 V# ^# a% Q' Y/ m6 L& D6 x# o8 C+ E
性的担忧，他称，“美国ZF的债务和赤字似乎正走在一条不可持续的道路上。”' X4 C3 `# S: ^0 p, u$ R) y( Y9 l7 `
" Y _0 s% E/ D4 U" N
这可能会导致美国国债收益率曲线变得更陡峭，期限溢价上升。“我们认为，随着投资者寻
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求另类资产，这种情况将更广泛地支持数字资产。”( ~) ] O+ p8 }. z( ^
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