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基金发行又入低迷期,最佳入场时机或已至
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相比前几年的基金大热潮,近年来,投资者对基金的态度由热烈追捧转为理性对待。受国内市场情绪、国外地缘政治影响,相对应地,基金公司发行新基金的数量、规模也有所下降。
Wind数据显示,今年以来基金发行进入低迷期。今年上半年,新成立基金710只,发行份额为6849.47亿,同比下降9362.6亿。二季度以来,偏股混合(除定开)新发基金数量为61支,平均发行规模仅为3.38亿,明显低于历史平均水平。这个现象是否表明又到了投资的好时机?或许我们可以从历史经验中找到一些蛛丝马迹。
查阅Wind数据可知,2013年下半年,新成立权益类基金33只,发行份额201.14亿,平均发行份额6.10亿。随后,2014年偏股混合型基金平均涨22.24%,2015年偏股混合型基金平均涨幅43.17%。而在2019年上半年,新成立权益类基金162只,发行份额1402.87亿,平均发行份额8.66亿。随后,2020年偏股混合型基金平均涨幅51.5%。两次权益类基金的发行低迷期之后,都迎来了偏股混合型基金较高的收益涨幅。对于普通投资者而言,基金发行的低迷期,或许意味着好的入场时机。但往往只有少部分投资者能意识到这一点,在市场低点来临时把握住机会。
在新发基金数量规模较为低迷的发行态势中,也不乏亮点,比如易米基金的首只非发起式开放式公募基金——易米开鑫价值优选混合基金,发行规模超5亿元。基金经理包丽华对未来投资充满信心:“我坚信中国将继续坚持市场化道路方向不变,且中国发展长期韧性充足,比如高素质人才红利,比如全国统一大市场等等。我也相信企业家精神,未来会源源不断的有优质企业、优质商业模式冒出来,并能够在宏观层面形成合力,从而驱动中国经济成功跨过转型期。”
对于一只基金而言,真正决定其价值的是它能为投资者带来多少回报。发行成功只是一个开始,对于主动型基金而言,基金经理接下来的操作才是一只基金的“灵魂”所在。
巴菲特说:“别人贪婪我恐惧,别人恐惧我贪婪”。市场处于较低位置时,机构会更加谨慎操作,而对于普通投资者而言,从历史经验来看,在这个位置买入基金,相对安全且盈利概率较大。新发基金规模处于底部也是一种信号,或是基金抄底的好机会。底部入场固然有更大概率赚钱,但如果太在乎短期的利润,则会失去耐心,丢掉大势。作为投资者,除了要把握好时机入场之外,更要有拿得住的好心态,在面对瞬息万变的资本市场时,才能有更大概率获取高收益。
数据来源:wind
来源：金色财经 |
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