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台湾下调全年经济成长至3.76％ CPI上调至2.92％
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台湾12日公布最新经济数据，第2季实质GDP初步统计年增率为3.05％，经季节调整后对第一季增率折成年率为-7.01％，并计第1季，上半年经济增长率3.38％；另第3、4季经济年增长率分别为4.71％及3.53％，并计第1、2季，全年经济增长率下调至3.76％，较5月预测数3.91％下调0.15个百分点，约200亿美元，人均GDP33743美元，CPI涨幅上调至2.92％，其中电价调涨影响0.04百分点。
台湾审计部门指出，由于厂商逐渐反映成本，外食费与房租涨幅扩大，预测全年消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨2.92％，上调0.25个百分点，2023年随原物料价格回稳，涨幅缩小为1.72％。
此外，第1季经济年增长率上调为3.72％，较5月初估数3.14％增加0.58个百分点，其中民间投资增长上调2.15个百分点(由6.64％修正为8.79％)；主要系依据台湾“中央银行”国际收支帐(BOP)、各级政府会计报告、经济部门制造业投资及营运概况调查等最新资料修正，经季节调整后对上季增长(saqr)1.60％，折算年率(saar)为6.55％。
外需方面，全球经济因俄乌战争、通膨升温，各国陆续采行紧缩货币政策而放缓等因素影响，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测全年世界贸易量增长率由4月预测之5.0％下调为4.1％，惟新兴科技应用及企业数位转型持续扩展，终端产品芯片含量提高，加上岛内产能陆续开出，部分订单移回岛内生产，推动岛内出口动能；上半年台湾出口总值2466亿美元，较去年同期增19.22％，剔除物价因素后，实质出口量增长7.87％。
下半年虽厂商库存去化压力升高，惟企业智能生产趋势不变，加上各国陆续推动包括宽频网路、洁净能源在内之各项基础建设，可望维系出口动能，预测全年商品出口5067亿美元，年增13.51％。商品进口受国际农工原物料价格续居高档及出口与内需引申需求影响，预测全年为4,456亿美元，年增16.80％。
由于疫情反覆，短期内来台旅客及出国仍受局限，旅行收支仍处低档；另终端产品需求放缓，约制三角贸易净收入表现。并计商品及服务并剔除物价因素后，预测全年实质输出增长5.84％，5月预测下调0.01个百分点，输入随岛内资本设备需求续增，实质增长5.87％，上调1.35个百分点。
内需方面，民间消费上半年疫情影响民众外出消费意愿，惟随政策转向兼顾防疫与经济，政府推动悠游国旅等措施，出游人潮已见回温，加以基本工资调升与军公教调薪，企业加薪与股利发放明显增加，就业市场亦渐增温，预测全年民间消费在去年低基数下实质增长3.03％，下调0.07个百分点；2023年跨境旅游可望为消费再添动能，预测民间消费增长4.88％。
固定投资方面，半导体厂商积极扩充岛内产能，台商持续回台投资，加上离岸风电与太阳光电等绿能设施持续建置，均将带动相关产业生产及增置设备或厂房，推动投资增长动能，惟全球经济放缓，厂商库存去化压力恐约制生产，部分企业投资计画或将延后或转趋审慎，预测全年民间投资实质增长6.55％，上调1.94个百分点，2023年增长3.43％。 来源：金色财经 |
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