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美股本周将进入9月这个向来表现不佳的月份，但在美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派强调继续加息以对抗通胀的重要性后，这预示着美股将面临更多痛苦，今年9月的表现可能会更惨。
 展望9月美股行情 不容乐观
巴隆金融周刊（Barron's）报道，数据显示，自1928年来，标普500指数在9月平均下跌1%，道指自1896年来，9月平均也都下跌。9月也是这两个指数一年里表现最差的月份，从目前局面看来，今年看来也不妙，美联储在9月加息75个基点的概率基本上已经板上钉钉，这已经带动了美国10年期国债利率冲破3%高点。
股市策略师认为，股市最近在利率上涨之际继续上涨的能力将减弱，又适逢9月这个表现较差月份，巴隆指出，美股的冬天已开始。标普500和道指自8月20日以来已下跌，标普500更累计跌约4%，美国本周公布的数据可能难以降低美联储继续加息的意愿，首先是经济研究联合会30日公布的8月消费者信心指数，预料将因近来汽油价格下跌而翻升，通胀预期将是观察重点，31日出炉的7月失业率与劳动力市场调查将显示就业市场依然紧俏，9月1日供给管理协会发布的8月制造业指数虽料将下滑，但制造业景气将维持扩张，9月2日公布的美国8月就业报告将是重中之重，非农就业人口预估新增30万人，少于7月的52.8万人，失业率估持平于3.5%，从超火热转变为火热，平均时薪预料仍将年增5.2%。
彭博经济学家在综合评估鲍威尔的发言及整体数据后，认为9月加息75个基点的可能性高于50个基点，因为鲍威尔的重点在劳动市场，美联储预料最终将提高联邦资金利率到5%以抑制通胀，比目前区间上限的2.5%，高出2.5个百分点。
来源：金色财经 |
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