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大家好，我是老李，关注我不迷路。
从非农数据说说“工资通胀螺旋”，上周鲍威尔在全球央行年会的讲话，给市场定下了一个基调：降通胀需要经济放缓，而且就业很可能也要走软。这些都是降低通胀的不幸代价。一般来说根据菲利普斯曲线通胀的降低是需要失业率的提高来实现的、这里最大的就是避免出现工资通胀螺旋。明晚公布8月份非农数据
先看看近期的一些情况
1.周二凌晨白宫新闻秘书讲话说预期就业数据可能降温，紧接着昨天公布小非农数据8月新增非农就业13万远低于预期的30万（当然也要看到今年大小非农数据有好几次差别很大了背离）。
2.周二晚上公布了一个平时大家不怎么关注数据这次需要十分注意。就美国劳工部公布的8月份职位空缺数，逆转了此前三个月下跌走势职位空缺达到了1123万，远高于预期1047万，相比7月职位空缺增加54万。这里要注意，在失业率还在历史低位的情况下，职位空缺不仅没减少反倒增加了，意味着很多人主动离职了并且不着急找新工作，为什么？因为想要薪水更高的工作，要求涨薪。潜在的信号就是可能进入了工资通胀螺旋的状态。
3.工资通胀螺旋，就是人们预期未来物价会上涨侵蚀购买力，要求涨薪企业在就业市场紧张的情况下只能照做（不然员工就离职找薪水更高的工作）然后又把成本转嫁给消费者提高终端商品的价格推高通胀。然后员工发现工资涨了也白搭，继续要求涨薪然后企业被迫继续，恶性循环。
4.打破工资通胀螺旋的关键就是破环员工的议价能力，继续打破恶性循环。但是不能打破企业对消费者的议价能力，因为这样话企业没了利润、也就没有继续生存的必要，破产了事。带来的是大衰退和硬着陆。
5.所以从这个意义上来看、明晚的非农就业。新增非农就业数据和失业率，后者更值得关注下。因为在空缺职位大幅增加的情况下，新增非农就业估计一般（最多不好不坏）但是这时失业率就很重要了，失业率是主动登记为失业的人数除以劳动力总人口。主动登记失业的目的，是为了领取失业救济金。如果职位空缺增多，失业率继续保持低位说明很多人并不着急、也不觉得自己失业了，手里有粮还能应付一段时间。
再一个需要关注是时薪增长数据，特别是环比月率的走势，意味着薪水增长势能时不时还比较强劲，7月份薪水环比是大幅高于预期的。
感谢观看，关注我，了解更多。
来源：金色财经 |
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