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[打法交流] 对百家乐玩家的忠告(转载)
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1#
闲只在0-5加牌,庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌(庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌):
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% T0 k7 r8 J! j! T6 R6 o1、4+5=9,4+6=10=0,多4显然对闲有利。% ~7 M# U  g" F2 F2 L

! q2 _4 f# R3 V" I6 l2、各牌多寡(根据算牌得知)对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4,开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况(1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%)变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。8 Z* v) }" w  q1 P" O% A: [- y

8 @; w0 V1 Y; t0 T  k6 A电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下:
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" d$ }9 g0 F: d7 l; T2 ]# T- g4 O少一张 开闲机率自(1.23508%)6 P( g3 w1 P& _" h& |
2 j. G2 A8 _' G5 r: s' u
升(降)%1 ?, F, Y6 E% P. V
# k, C  t. }! O9 L9 [. A+ g  f* N# }
A (0.0018)* v3 S5 J# l  r$ ~4 I# x
+ n9 x& o( m3 ?% I, z8 P$ H1 _0 Q
2 (0.0045)
3 d5 u; E- ]* V3 K- l
" }. t6 `& j4 l3 (0.0054)/ _' p" c2 S  U
8 K$ H' a3 e# A* A
4 (0.0120)
# D; k& ^* k8 V5 V
; k- F, p* P2 N7 h5 0.0084
; D+ t  F& r# @" [
+ ^% N5 u1 w$ `- F4 i" N3 q6 0.0113
5 [9 a6 d% X& s( T1 a4 [) h9 e( t  ~9 v; [/ z5 E5 {5 _
7 0.0082
2 @( n% A/ E1 D! L% A# Z# G# u8 A' H$ F% ]5 f* s
8 0.0053
' t0 h/ E6 T9 k2 t, U1 H/ n1 Z0 v) p5 z! f, J
9 0.0025
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* M& E& |  P* n  N例如打8副牌,少一张4,下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。4 D' f9 Z8 Z% S7 l

. B! w* s9 ^1 N" w# [% l$ Q* W+ @由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率,玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁(在线博彩也有可能)每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题:
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# O5 p$ o; d2 T" c+ G21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利,若赌规好(可以早降)而切牌少(6副切1副不打)算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少?值不值得?% B5 Y0 H- q$ r& I$ ~0 M8 e

4 w; b) l  _2 ~, Z% u8 v假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表:! M2 l- }$ O4 V

$ h9 h& y8 N+ a2 S原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%,-1.23508%,-14.35963%
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当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时,玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少:& {+ A) `8 t( o9 q" v
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所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打,例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77(庄闲和合计)……一万把(3000小时?)只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把!5 d! _6 B/ q* g3 }5 Q# B, C
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一般8副牌很少只留11张不打(98%穿透率)。但即使只留11张不打,好牌机会仍只有1.2%。; R; x5 k5 R' Z% _% M( j6 U

& \4 }! t5 @8 R8 V2 e如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会,百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。
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不过如果你(因为喜欢?)非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣,算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。
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当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同(如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍),不同点数标数不同:
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点数 标数( j5 P" g! B: u. G2 Z
- G5 V% X; z! e  H7 d+ c# C
A +1- z; U# M6 }3 j! G
" M/ a8 A- G* F+ e- L  J0 d
2 +1$ [2 n  E! j% H8 o7 e7 U4 j/ S; C
; a* Q5 \! z# ~% Q# M" d3 u
3 +2, o8 \* B+ V- Z& J- {

! I9 M$ s9 E3 B9 d1 u# E4 +3
+ |+ n( b" Y' c( i. d1 `% f- Y' a: I5 H1 E& d3 c4 B" }" X) A+ l" x
5 -2. b8 w% g5 ?" Z3 B4 m) [9 k% y8 s
% s0 v3 K0 X& _: }) V  h
6 -2
& C3 ~, l; q" s9 T2 B/ Y" X
- Q) F6 d; E# _; h4 ^1 t$ R7 G7 -2
  E" X9 z/ b$ t6 K* w) k
/ f& R  A, V% _) {, w3 B3 F) F8 -12 |3 V; \6 M; v

" L0 f! E/ n- Y, C+ v; f9 k9 0
5 r5 W, z  L- k2 C- D. E0 i; A6 U: C  D5 \, B3 A0 l
0 0
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自0起算,看到A/2加1,“3”加2,“4”加3,5/6/7减2,“8”减1,9/0当没看到,算到正值表示小牌出得多,庄胜算提高。; _9 D! C% `+ r

8 r. |7 t8 g3 e算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表(%):
* x, R5 S; H7 M7 }% j5 s0 I' A9 O) t0 |( _4 R& z
注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率,下庄-1.058%,下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%,+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣(依下注额为0.6%),±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣,得等-27时下闲(+0.022%)或+29时下庄(+0.02%)……大约玩半年会碰到一次。
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3、结论, I5 N( S0 [3 b1 `
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百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的,想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏,南辕北辙,不输也难。% Q% W3 q9 [& H7 |

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参与人数 1贡献值 +3 收起 理由
avatar 天策-萌二姐 + 3 百家乐的打法真的很多

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avatar
这个的话也是要了解一下了
avatar
3#
玩百家乐的朋友,认真看看了
avatar
你研究的非常透彻也是很科学
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这些忠告都是没有用的东西了啊
avatar
6#
不玩百家乐就是最好的忠告
avatar
7#
你还是先去告诉一下你自己的吧
avatar
8#
认真看看了
avatar
9#
我已经不玩百家乐好多年了
avatar
不知这个是不是真的管用的了
avatar
11#
感谢楼主的忠告,还是非常值得借鉴。
avatar
12#
忠告是可以去看看了解下啦 。
avatar
还是方法的,楼主的强项了
avatar
那百家乐这个东西真的非常难搞
avatar
这个还是需要能够多多的学习一下的。
avatar
16#
这个有点难度不好理解得了
avatar
17#
转载的也是很不错的东西的哦。
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