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过去几天，加密货币市场又迎来了新一轮的瀑布行情，作为本轮下跌“排头兵”的 ETH 接连失守 1700、1500、1200 美元等重要关口。周线之上，ETH 更是已连续 10 周收阴，这也意味着 ETH 在过去近三个月的时间里几乎都是在单边下行。
- B+ w) y. i* i4 Y) N# R/ m
4 _, G3 u/ q2 x* T! x9 \% [ n
极端行情之下，连带影响也接踵而至。合约市场方面，全网爆仓资金总量接连两日超过 5 亿美元；DeFi 方面，锁定在各大生态之上的资产总价值已跌破 1000 亿美元关口；NFT 市场也不可能“独善其身”，交易量及项目的地板价双双下挫。 & u4 T* H/ x% H3 K/ G2 F* C) L( X- h- u
FUD 从何而来？ ' {) p7 _: s5 o& B6 g0 I# h
关于 ETH 近期暴跌的导火索，市场上有诸多说法，抛开老生常谈的宏观加息影响和整体金融环境不提，stETH 日益加剧的折价无疑是当下最牵动短期市场情绪的潜在黑天鹅。 2 S1 M! N H7 X3 @
关于这一点，结合对 ETH 2.0 的开发进程的乐观预期，最终结论是 stETH 可能会继续折价，但在套利资金的平衡作用下，其相对 ETH 的报价很难出现太大幅度的偏离，更不可能像 UST 那样彻底崩盘。
- X) z/ E1 H/ P' x, S9 o6 C不过，随着过去几天 ETH 的大幅下跌，市面上关于 stETH 的 FUD 情绪越来越浓，“下一个 UST”、“死亡螺旋”、“Celsius 彻底爆了”等话语高频出现在社交媒体的讨论中……鉴于市场环境如此糟糕，已经不起太多不必要的折腾了，作为媒体从业者有必要去做一次力所能及的“去伪存真”，结合市场动态就 stETH 的最新情况再做一次梳理。
2 c) B0 B1 u' @: @" x O首先需要明确的是恐慌的来源，ETH 的下跌为何会加剧市场对 stETH 的恐慌？主要原因有两点，一是随着 ETH 的进一步走低，市场判断 Celsius 会面临更大的提款压力，从而不得不抛售手中的 stETH 来换取 ETH 还债；二是考虑到 Aave 等借贷平台上存在着相当大规模的 stETH 借贷仓位，价格的快速下行或将导致这些 stETH 陷入清算风险。两者都会造成 stETH 较 ETH 折价的进一步放大，从而加剧整个市场的恐慌情绪。
; U9 {- }$ N: v; TCelsius：为了活命，只能服下猛药 3 t( @0 v. U; u3 c9 X4 L# F
那么，这两条线现在究竟是什么情况呢？先来说说 Celsius，该平台今天有两个相当重要的消息。
8 A6 ?2 d. P' e' L3 N5 |& J' f# h" U第一个是 Celsius 已宣布暂停所有提款、交易和转账，在宣布该公告之前 Celsius 还向交易所转入了 9500 wBTC 和 50000 ETH。
- v" B4 E" r d. q) u这一连串事件让 Celsius 直接被喷上了风口浪尖，暂不确定 Celsius 卖出这部分资产的后续动作是什么而暂停提款的举措则像是一剂“带着不止三分毒的猛药”，如此操作显然会对该平台的信誉及未来发展造成相当负面的影响，但面临着潜在的挤兑可能性，停止提现却可以阻止短期的系统性崩盘，也是无奈之举。
: d7 i$ p+ ^* Z$ o" `至于所谓的“Celsius 彻底暴雷”的说法，原因是 Celsius 手中的大部分仓位未动，其主要地址 |
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